The only earnings report that matters to the web. Google just reported record net earnings of $1.03bn for the fourth quarter. After expensing for stock options, that works out as $3.18 a share. Analysts had forecast $2.91 on average. That's good, right? Well, barely. The search engine giant may pretend it doesn't manage earnings expectations, but I bet its investor relations staff do what every other public company does: nudge down stock analysts' forecasts, to ensure a positive surprise. The only problem: that tactic is now built into the expectations model. If Google only matches forecasts, one quarter, the market's reaction will be brutal.

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