Market research outfits are so congenitally optimistic that one only really perks up when they, once in a blue moon, turn bearish. So we paid attention to a Forrester Research study showing bleak prospects for the video download market. After this year, forecast at $279m, revenues from paid downloads will fall back again. The report, however, doesn't spell out the key conclusion: Google, with Youtube, is in the best position to benefit from a surge of advertising against online video; Netflix already offers a package of movies, for download, to subscribers; if consumers reject web pay-per-view, it's Apple's iTunes, which offers single shows for $1.99, that will struggle.