Some people viewing YouTube videos have gotten an alert saying antivirus software has detected a computer virus called Actns/Swif.T. That virus is real enough; it redirects people to a website which then installs a piece of hostile software deceivingly called Antivirus 2009. The software is actually spyware, and notoriously annoying to remove.

But YouTube is not actually infected with a virus, it turns out. Instead, out-of-date antivirus software is mislabeling YouTube clips as a threat.

Panic over, right? No. The video format YouTube uses, Flash, has proven insecure before. YouTube processes users' video files and generates its own Flash files, so it's unlikely that YouTube would host hostile code — but never say never. As people spend more time on video sites and social networks like MySpace and Facebook, they increasingly become targets for virus creators.

The bigger problem here is figuring out whom to trust. Outdated virus-detection software, or the websites they're labeling as dangerous? Blogs which report new viral threats, or the ones that debunk them? Software which labels itself "Antivirus" but actually infects your computer? We're going deep down the rabbit hole, and I don't think Keanu Reeves is waiting for us on the other end.

On some levels, Popfly is nothing new. It's similar to Yahoo Pipes, Apple's soon-to-be-released widget builder Dashcode, personalization tools in various Google properties, and any number of new portals which allow you to build your own web applications. None of these Web mashup builders have attracted the hoped-for audience.

Why? Nondevelopers simply do not develop applications; hence the "non-" prefix. When they do, they build bad applications when there are plenty of existing, free alternatives. Social networks, the Web, and desktops are already overrun by thousands of redundant, useless widgets. This crowded market is dominated by a few quality Web applications built by professional developers who do it for a living. The next innovation is not going to come from an amateur using a dumbed-down beta product.

If someone tries to get you excited about a Popfly widget, the odds are high five other widgets performing the same function already exist. The odds will be low that the Popfly widget will be the best of the class.

But Microsoft should, nevertheless, be excited about Popfly. Rarely has Redmond produced such a simple, visually appealing tool for developers. After playing with Popfly, talented developers will likely migrate to more powerful tools. But Microsoft is badly losing in the battle with Adobe's Flash. Anything that gives Popfly, and the Silverlight technology it's based on, a bit of buzz will redound to Microsoft's long-term benefit. Even if you and I never end up finding a single Popfly-based application worth using.

Today, Microsoft made some major company changes in multiple divisions of their business. Some long time execs including Amir Majidimehr and others are affected and multiple divisions have been reorged. Lots of changes that will affect multiple product lines. I expect we'll see the changes announced shortly, if not tomorrow.

H.264 makes it possible for dramatic quality improvements in Internet video, it's true. However, most loser-generated content is still being produced with crappy cameras, on home computers with cheap editing software. The update to Flash will not create a tidal wave of better content. It only removes one of many roadblocks.

And, needless to say, a more advanced algorithm won't improve the subject matter of Web videos. YouTube will remain just as inane and crappy as before. The difference between professional and amateur content, however, will become more and more distinct. We'll still be inundated with videos of dressed-up pets and teenagers lip syncing two feet away from the camera (always original and entertaining). We'll just be more aware that we're watching crap.

For Adobe, it's a timely move. Content producers were beginning to eschew Flash video's universality for higher-quality download formats; startups like Joost were hoping to develop alternative video delivery mechanisms by emphasizing better image resolution; and Microsoft thought it saw an open door to compete with Flash through Silverlight, its competing multimedia platform which supports another HD-video format. Adobe just closed the door on competitors and cemented its control of online video for the foreseeable future. And if it renders people's home videos that much more tiresome, all the better.