In case you guys hadn't heard, the work is finally finished on the permanent YMG space in Santa Monica. We've been moved around to a couple of different permanent spaces in the last year, but we've finally moved into Lloyd's vision of the future of the Yahoo! Media Group. And in that future, former TV execs will treat internet employees with as much contempt as his network staffers undoubtedly suffered. (I guess I shouldn't be surprised by this.)

Here are some quick highlights of the new work space:

• The 6th floor is the exclusive domain of the executives. Regular employees' security badges won't open the doors, and the receptionists up there make it clear that none of us peons should be up there.

• Cubicle walls have been shortened to about 4', so now you have no privacy, and it's pretty much impossible to do ANYTHING louder than typing without completely distracting or annoying your neighbors. Having to whisper while on conference calls is particularly fun. I'm not sure why we didn't just get desks.
• We used to have a nice, big breakroom with a few tables, and some games and a flatscreen TV. It served as a lunchroom and lounge (a lot of us watched the World Cup in there); but that's gone. Apparently we're not supposed to get together with co-workers anymore.

I bring this stuff up because in spite of a lot of chaos in the last few years, Yahoo! has been a cool, creative place to work; now it's pretty obvious that Lloyd & Terry [Semel, CEO] think that there's no excuse for us to actually enjoy our jobs. I guess the message is that we all just need to shut the fuck up and get back to work. (On stupid shit like The Nine.) Anyone else that's going to move down here from Sunnyvale is in for an ugly surprise.

As a long-time tribe user, and entrepreneur, the NBC deal (if real) indicates a positioning within NBC to cozy up to a more left-wing demographic. In fact, severing their partnership w/MS, investing in YouTube, and grabbing iVillage (with their respective demographic) shows a decided interest in new generation free thinkers at a point in time that the US is starting to realize Fox is a caricature of the Right. Media tends to oscillate in this manner as demographic opportunity presents itself.

This would also sort of align with the rumor that Tribe was looking to bring back Mark Pincus...not that would ever happen logically in a startup environment, but it was clear that the current management did not know how to grow its eclectic user base and instead embarked upon the systematic alienation of those most sensitive to censorship through the implementation of progressively restrictive terms of use (a vain attempt to make the service more acceptable to a new class of advertisers.)

In any event, this is somewhat interesting from a media perspective.

Earlier: Exclusive: NBC is buying Tribe — but why?
Earlier: Rumormonger: Tribe wants old chief back

Famed Vic G. el google goneo.

It's the calm before the storm. That's dead obvious.

Vic's following Ted Hase, Martin Taylor and Mark Zbikowski. Weird ones there.

And it's been way more than just natural-selection to-and-fro, it's been key people in key positions, I mean, this just adds to all the Kai-Fu Lee, Mark Lucovsky, Adam Bosworths turmoil. Breeding ground for conspiracy theories, but you need not go crazy conspiracy. Just look around at normal happenings...

After the jump, Chris gets insidery.

Another shake-up looming with a rumored heavy RIF, with the WinFS fallout, the Warhol "warporware" and the WGA chaos, with morale low and new stack rank chaos, and Vista slips (with Philip Su telling all), with Dynamics not quite so dynamic, with the stock in a two year hibernation thanks to Gates's long-term pull-out, with the political back-stabbing games anew, with everyone (even Grandma investors) unhappy with Ballmer's leadership or "spend strategy." All the while, Ray Ozzie is dazzled by Web 2.0 pixie-dust and "Web Advertising" revenues, with Craig Mundie playing academia chess-game tiddlywinks.

With Adobe, Symtantec, EU and pretty soon half the world sending more lawyers in. (Bought their way out of the lawsuit hole, only to fall back in). And now with the Walmartty Kevin Turner spit and shine. Office reorg's still sinking in, with all other groups merely treading water. With the chief "blogger" that anyone actually reads being the anonymous Mini-Microsoft. All while Key Evangelists short-sell before the crash.

These tea leaves aren't much hard to read.

Even if you, like me, have no idea what WGA and "heavy RIF" are, hopefully Chris was still able to stir up some vague fear in your heart. [UPDATE: Chris explains some acronyms:]

RIF = Reduction in Force. Meaning, yes, Microsoft layoffs. Gates is no longer the protector for money-losing rat-holes. Mundie and Ozzie Ax of sorts. I hear 7,000 is the target. Mini-Microsoft may get his wish. Yet Ballmer's preaching a hire pitch, so layoffs while hires. Typical. Foot on brake and gas at same time.

WGA = Microsoft anti-piracy thing that morphed spyware. Biggggggggg fallout as it mistakenly reported a big swash of Procter & Gamble clients as being pirated. And some row with the Air Force as it did the same thing there, and they are freaking over the report back procedure something. Supposed to be blanked out for corporate keys, but individuals installed it themselves and it all invaded the network; havoc is an understatement. The inside scoop.

Earlier: Quick, let's make chair-throwing jokes [Valleywag]

1. Vlogs about Vlogs all Vlogged up - Blog-level egos gone Video. Endless pontificational ramblings about blogs, vlogs, podcasts, RSS feeds and the whole annoying scene. Circular content circling itself, squared (and then some). Video Killed The Blogging Star.

2. YouTube Stupidisms and MySpace-Cadets - Mimicking that song or doing goofy grade-school-level humor spoofs. Funny for the first time maybe, but even a stretch there. Passable for some teenager yucking around around with a camera, but downright embarrassing for 30-something geeks. Grow up, please.

3. Tech Conference reports on Tech Conferences and the Tech Conference Attendees - Insider-baseball extreme. After recording the panels, the shaky cams wander around to the audience for another redundant poke. All smug:

"What you weren't at this conference? Well, obviously you don't matter. But have a gander at what these so-so-important people have to say. You should consider yourself darned lucky that I am sooo kind-hearted and democratically-minded as to report on this and bring it down to your level, you lower-caste low-life pond-scum miserable excuses for human beings."

4. Geek Out, Freak Out - Geeks talking about their Computers, Gadgets and all things SciFi. The neurological and medical science research vlogs are few and far between, but there are boatloads of geeks talking geeky. These are the sort of people you run away from at parties, or feign a fainting spell if cornered. Run, scream and hide.

5. Video Game Central - Endless upon endless unedited droning bluster about, gee, video games. As an added bonus, 2 hour heated-debates on Xbox 360 vs. PS3. Occasionally, self-important types wax philosophical about the social implications of World of Warcraft.

6. Egocasts - "Look at me. Look at me. Did you see me? Huh? You want me to repeat that? Look at me." Random misc. daily happenings, of no particular importance whatsoever, but said blustered ego thinks the world should know when he or she decides to change toothpaste brands. Often tries for the humorous outlook on daily life, but always fails miserably. Making the ordinary transcendent, is an art-form only a rare few ever achieve, most often found in great literature, not quite via dizzy-headache-inducing retail-purchased handheld cameras.

7. Cults of Personalities - Self-appointed Silicon Valley notables and Venture Capitalists, vlogging and podcasting themselves and their friends all up. You are supposed to worship them and join their Cult
of the Moment, as heck, that's what it takes to get in this game. We are the big dogs, and if you don't know that, I suggest you get with the program, fast.

"You gave me fortune. You gave me fame. You gave me power in your god's name. I'm every person you need to be. I'm the cult of personality."

8. Pretty in Pinks - No talent beach-ball Valley Girl wander-arounds who get the audiences and the hits on account of the Secret Decoder Ring 34DD Codename.

9. Empty Heads - Bland dull-as-rocks, corporate press-releasey talking-heads. Thought of as brand new frontier by any number of Valley podcast start-ups. Has, as a main feature, the inability to maintain EYE CONTACT with the camera. Here's a word that might be too big for Corporate Spokespeople types: T-E-L-E-P-R-O-M-P-T-E-R. They are pretty affordable these days, use and love.

10. Analyze That - Analysts and Journalists (that should really stick with print) blathering on and on about the week's general news in tech. Lots of 'ummms', 'yeah', 'cool', 'likes' with endless sputterings and long pauses. Sort of 'Washington in Week in Review' only with half a bottle of Sleeping Pills extra. Broadcasting and radio takes talent...not much of that here.

11. Wanntabee Independent Film Makers - Art films and low-budget gore films podcasted and vlogged up for their own sake. Unwatchable — all Direction and no Script. In the immortal words of Sire Joe Bob Briggs, "I hear the word 'independent,' and I see movies about schizophrenic lesbian performance artists spouting freeform poetry."

As obvious as it is that AOL's ISP branch is in trouble, this tip is nowhere near reliable. If you have info about this supposed massive layoff at AOL Broadband and AOL Narrowband, e-mail tips@valleywag.com. In the meantime, here's the tip. Try not to slip on the crazy.

AOL FANZ,

That's right, a BLOCKBUSTER AOL LAYOFF for the ages!!! Finally the show is almost over and the curtains are about to be drawn.... sources suggest that AOL is going to have a "75% layoff" of the Access business which is home to the AOL Broadband and AOL Narrowband departments.

This hatchet is expected to drop sometime between August and early October-06 timeframe however a "reorganization" is expected to be announced on or around the early Aug earnings call. The new AOL strategy will amount to shutting down AOL broadband because the economics do not work for the bundle — $6-7 in cost and $3-4 in bundled revenue per subscriber.

After the jump, there's more. Oh, dear reader, so much more.

AOL losses cash on each subscriber that they migrate over to DSL broadband deals. Hosting costs are to blame...but wait...there are over 25,000 servers.....Cable companies hosts costs are a few dimes a month per user not $5.00/sub/mo. And you might have though there were economies of scale....you thought wrong....

The Narrowband marketing engine is expected to also be shut down — no direct marketing, perhaps only the online channel will survive which is perhaps 10% of all sales. Over the last 12 months over 600 million CD-Roms were sent out with a ~0.5% response rate at $200 mm in cost. No more CDs in your mail box????? :-)

AOL has about 2 remaining choices which are currently being considered....

1) Make AOL Free so that there may be some potential long term AOL.com strategy before all 18 million remaining subs leave....hmmmm this smells like 1999 when NetZero came on the scene....AOL for free with advertising to the max to kill Netzero was being contemplated but never launched.

2) Reduce the unlimited narrowband cost from $25.90 (see below) to under $10 and compete head to head with NetZero, Juno, etc....the bottom of the barrell for the market. Well we know for sure that AOL will kill Netscape (low cost flanker) in either scenario....and Compuserve....that died a long time ago....what has not died that has been touched by AOL?

3) Let me see, what else could they do...split up the dial-up, broadband group, digital services, and AOL.com....DUH. [Sloppy scatalogical reference deleted — ed.]

GMAT question.....

$1.0 Billion (13-24 months ago) ———--> $250 MM (Last 12 months)———————--> $$ XX (next 12 months) ....

Did you get that right? Slap yourself on the back if you came up with $62.5 MM and high five your neighbor. That is what one could expect AOL to spend in the following 12 months on marketing spend in this death spiral. This is the "lights out" scenario that was considered 2 years ago but somehow some excellent BSer convinced someone at TWX to hold onto AOL.

If you were caught in the AOL hallways in 1997-2000 you would expect to give slap happy high fives as the stock went up...but little by little director by director, VP by VP, pure incompetence was being built...each dumber than the next..... TWX milked them dry - no new ideas or products....or if they were they were late, very late.

Remember the slogan..."AOL, so easy to use, it's no wonder we're number one"...well its no wonder they have not gone extinct yet without a product. They had a thick cushion but the air has leaked out. The lights are on and last call has sounded...and DAMN DOES SHE LOOK UGLY.....back to what is pertinent....

The only thing which will likely survive for some period of time will be the US AOL.com and the digital services unit as well as the international development of the India and Chinese portals....wait...aren't they like 20 years late on this? Ok, Ok...10 years but you get the point. Wasn't a ex-Sony exec fired in AOL Int'l for suggesting a portal strategy that went against the scared cow for the China JV deal in 2000? Hmmm....she got the last laugh...

Didn't Pitmann say "focus on Dial-up" in Summer 2002 just as he was canned and when the subscriber base peaked....hmmm....vision....

One thing to note is that the US portal is likely not really profitable on a standalone basis because 80% of the page views are generated by AOL subs which is falling fast if you have not noticed....even the portal as a stand alone does not look to have legs.

Also you probably did not catch it but AOL quietly raised the price of AOL dial from $23.90 to $25.90. What? Why not sock it to your customers with the slimmest choice.... the old folks who can't see their bills on their credit card statements without bifocals.... and those that cannot even get a broadband connection because their homes are not passable...

And if that is not enough how about this video:

http://www.nbc11.com/news/9406542/detail.html [Vincent Ferrari's AOL cancellation vid — ed.]

This is the big one you have been waiting for.

Expect AOL CC3, 4, 5, and 6 to be closed down and sold off. Perhaps only CC1 and CC2 and headquarters will remain. This should not be a surprise to anyone...the surprise should be....why didn't they do this about 2 years sooner.

Let the HBSers begin the best HBS case for the next 2 decades.

AOL RIP.

Right, glad that's over. Please, for the love of all that is holy, don't send this to Digg before someone's confirmed it.