<![CDATA[Gawker: valleywag, journalist math]]> http://tags.gawker.com/assets/base/img/thumbs140x140/gawker.com.png <![CDATA[Gawker: valleywag, journalist math]]> http://gawker.com/tag/valleywag/journalistmath http://gawker.com/tag/valleywag/journalistmath <![CDATA[Advanced math courses to hasten financial apocalypse]]> Mama, don't let your babies grow up to be Wall Street quant cowboys. My alma mater, northern Virginia's Thomas Jefferson High School for Science & Technology, is in the papers for offering advanced postcalculus math courses. (Yeah, yeah — tell me something I didn't know in 9th grade.) Why is this news, two decades after the school first offered such classes? Robert Sachs, a college professor who also teaches complex variables at the school, suggests that his students' math skills have potential for good or evil. Some graduates pursue careers in science or engineering, he tells the Post, while others "become the math financial people who aren't getting good press these days."

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<![CDATA[Email is destroying our productivity, warns Twitter advocate]]> "Email becomes a dangerous distraction," headlines a guest column by an "expert in collaboration and communications" in the usually tech-savvy Sydney Morning Herald. If you check mail every five minutes, you lose eight hours a week of mental concentration, according to some glib algebra done on the results of a study. The cure for distracting email conversations? "Twitter ... instant messaging ... wikis ... blogs." You've guessed this already, but allow me to edit the author's bio for clarity: Suw Charman-Anderson is a freelance social software consultant.

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<![CDATA[Sarah Palin's Wikipedia page scrubbed]]> NPR reports that someone edited Sarah Palin's Wikipedia page Friday just before the word got out that she was John McCain's pick for a running mate. The edits were obviously made to make Palin look good. There were about 30 of them, made by one person. I'll spell out what NPR is dying to say: That one person was Sarah Palin.

Had this happened to Joe Biden's entry, it wouldn't be deemed a story for National Public Radio. Still, I like this All Things Considered writeup, because it pretty much admits in the first sentence that NPR's army of anti-GOP reporters missed the scoop that Palin was McCain's pick. None of them thought to set a watch on her Wikipedia page.

If you happened to check Sarah Palin's Wikipedia entry Thursday, you might have had a good tip about Friday's announcement.

Someone — and apparently it was just one person — felt like the existing biography wasn't appropriate for a vice-presidential candidate.On Friday, 15 minutes before the rumor that John McCain had picked Palin as his running mate, a Wikipedia editor discovered 30 mostly favorable changes had been made to the Alaska governor's profile.

She was called "a politician of eye-popping integrity" and sections on her participation in a beauty pageant and her alleged use of influence to get her former brother-in-law fired were diminished.

Wikipedia is now restricting who can alter Palin's page.

(Photo by AP/Al Grillo)

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<![CDATA[iPhone apps 97 percent play, 3 percent work]]> Apple's iPhone has some 2,000 apps available for download. Of those, 65 have some arguable business application, Ben Worthen notes in a Wall Street Journal blog. Only 3 out of the top 100 most downloaded applications are business-related. The most plausible interpretation of those numbers: iPhone buyers and developers are, 97 times out of 100, uninterested in apps for doing business.But because Worthen writes about "business technology," he looks at the numbers and concludes that "the growth is impressive" — because a month ago, there were zero iPhone business apps. A month ago, there were zero frivolous iPhone apps, too, and they've outgrown business apps 30 to 1. Why not just admit the obvious? People mostly buy iPhones because they're fun. And they install apps for the same reason.]]> http://gawker.com/index.php?op=postcommentfeed&postId=5041564&view=rss&microfeed=true <![CDATA[Polls offer sweet relief from reality]]> "Your math is indeed bullshit," writes commenter Jeffrey McManus about yesterday's Zogby poll result that gave John McCain a 5 percent lead over Zogby's usual front-runner, Barack Obama. "The presidential election is chosen by electoral votes selected on a state-by-state basis. Any poll that tries to dumb down the situation by displaying a straight percentage of voters is bullshit." Let me shorten that: "Any poll ... is bullshit." Including the aspiring experts at the poll rollup site McManus recommends, Electoral-vote.com.

They called it for Kerry in 2004, by refining a guesswork algorithm until it forecast the electoral vote count almost exactly backwards. The site's editor seems to believe that applying the right mathematical formula to inaccurate poll results will get him accurate results. That's the epitome of the old programmer's saying — Garbage in, garbage out.

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<![CDATA[Twitter users worth $12.26 apiece, in magical make-believe land]]> In just a few short months, the value of a Twitter user has gone up over 1,200 percent, according to completely arbitrary and illogical calculations. I initially pegged it at around $1 based on the value buyers were willing to pay for Andrew Baron's Twitter account at auction. When Twitter received $15 million in funding, it worked out to around $7.50 per user. Looking at potential revenues, advertising strategist Ben Kunz pegs it at $12.26, based on 2.3 million users, industry averages for cost-per-click ad revenue, and ten ads per user per day. Of course, since Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has declared Twitter.com an ad-free zone, and many Twitter users get messages by means other than the site, the actual revenue-per-user number hovers under zero.

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<![CDATA[Blockbuster CEO won't buy Netflix — he can't afford it]]> Blockbuster has abandoned advertising TotalAccess, its also-ran DVD-by-mail competitor to Netflix. CEO Jim Keyes would like you to think his company's still a contender, though, and PaidContent's Rafat Ali is happy to oblige in a softball interview. Ali's far-from-knockout closer: "This is a hypothetical one. Would you be ever interested in buying Netflix?" We won't bother giving you Keyes's pat response about how he doesn't need Netflix. Instead, we'll just point you to PaidContent's handy financial summary included in the post. Blockbuster is worth $312 million. At $1.93 billion, Netflix is worth six times as much as Keyes's company.

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<![CDATA["At this rate, it will take the United States more than 100 years to catch up with Japan"]]> You'll be seeing a lot of articles this week claiming the U.S. is 101 years behind Japan in broadband, or some similar number-fumbling. The source is a report sponsored by the Communications Workers of America, a union which represents more than 700,000 workers in telecom and other jobs (for comparison, AFL-CIO membership is just over 12 million.) Let's skip the bogus arithmetic and get to what they want: "With the government’s help, we can make the most of our network capacity." Knock it off with the network stats and give us your pork price tag, willya?

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<![CDATA[Do Yahoos vote the Yahoo way?]]> Miguel Helft of the New York Times looks at shareholder discontent at Yahoo another way: If one assumes insiders voted their shares for the company's slate of directors, and discounts those, then the withheld votes on CEO Jerry Yang and Roy Bostock, the board's chairman, are even more striking. One problem with this analysis: It assumes that insiders just blindly voted the company line. From what we hear, there's as much discontent with Yang and Bostock inside Yahoo as therei is outside the company. [Bits]

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<![CDATA[Hipsters = hippies - subversion + Twitter]]> "Hipster: The Dead End of Western Civilization" is the new cover story from Adbusters. If you're not familiar, Adbusters is a fun, angry, Starbucks-hating publication whose credo states that we've all been brainwashed by advertising and mass media into an orgy of overconsumption that lets the American Empire destroy the rest of the world to feed our fat faces. I buy it at Whole Foods.

Ever since the Allies bombed the Axis into submission [See? I told you Adbusters is fun] Western civilization has had a succession of counter-culture movements that have energetically challenged the status quo. Each successive decade of the post-war era has seen it smash social standards, riot and fight to revolutionize every aspect of music, art, government and civil society.

Now, one mutating, trans-Atlantic melting pot of styles, tastes and behavior has come to define the generally indefinable idea of the “Hipster.” An artificial appropriation of different styles from different eras, the hipster represents the end of Western civilization – a culture lost in the superficiality of its past and unable to create any new meaning. While previous youth movements have challenged the dysfunction and decadence of their elders, today we have a youth subculture that mirrors the doomed shallowness of mainstream society.

The hipster represents the end of Western civilization – a culture so detached and disconnected that it has stopped giving birth to anything new.

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<![CDATA[Apple's weekend profits for the iPhone 3G: $330 million]]> Apple profited some $330 million from 3G iPhone sales over its first weekend, Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt estimates that . His back-of-the-envelope formula factored in iSuppli's estimate of the manufacturing costs of each iPhone 3G, Apple's numbers on how many iPhones it sold over the weekend, analyst estimates on how much AT&T and other carriers subsidize each phone, and what a survey says about the sales split between the iPhone's $199 and $299 iPhones models. All that, a little bit slower now, in Elmer-DeWitt's bullet points below.

  • At least 1 million iPhones sold over the first weekend (Apple)
  • Cost to Apple: $174.33 parts plus $50 royalties for 8GB model; $16 more for 16GB model (iSuppli)
  • Cost to consumers: $199 (8GB), $299 (16GB) (Apple)
  • Cost to carriers: conservatively, $499 (8GB), $599 (16GB) (iSuppli)
  • Profit per phone: $274.67 (8GB) and $358.67 (16GB)
  • Models sold: 33% (8GB), 66% (16GB) (Piper Jaffray survey)
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<![CDATA[Steve Jobs's jet-setting an indicator of Apple dealmaking?]]> Analysts say the craziest things when trying to guess what the supersecretive Steve Jobs is up to at Apple. Last quarter, Jobs has only billed the company for $30,000 in business-related travel reimbursements. That's down from the $550,000 peak in the previous quarter, which was the high-altitude mark for the year. Meanwhile, the stock price has gone up around 30 points in the same year. That has lead Silicon Alley Insider's Dan Frommer to speculate on what the sudden drop in private-jet expenses means. One scenario? Jobs is busy micromanaging employees on the latest batch of new products ahead of the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

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<![CDATA[ABC News grossly overestimates Twitter's reach]]> mohammed_maree_egypt_james_buck_twitter.jpgABC News's thesis that "Everyone Is 'Tweeting'" is quickly disproven — in the latest article on Twitter from ABC News. It begins with the obligatory anecdote about James Buck, the Berkeley student briefly jailed in Egypt:
[W]ith help from the Egyptian bloggers who received the message and alerted his university and the U.S. Embassy, Buck walked out of the police station a free man. His translator Mohammad was left behind.
Mohammed Maree, who made the mistake of getting anywhere near a protest with a cocksure Berkeley J-schooler, is still in jail. And I doubt Buck's continued tweets will be much help in freeing him. Because hardly anyone outside San Francisco's self-involved startup circles uses Twitter, and an email or text message would have been just as effective at saving Buck while leaving Maree stuck in a cell. (Photo by James Buck)

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<![CDATA[Founder of music startup Muxtape learns art of obfuscation from his master]]>
Interviewing Muxtape's Justin Ouellette for Listening Post, Eliot Van Buskirk asked "How many users are there at this point? How many muxtapes?" Ouellette's response — "more than the population of Germany, less than the population of Japan" — puts the number between 82 million and 127 million users. Compete.com puts the number around 52,000. Ouellete might have been joking, but Van Buskirk published the numbers without comment. And remember, with Ouellete and his Muxtape partner Jakob Lodwick, whom Barry Diller fired from his post as founder of online-video site Vimeo, you can't judge what's actually going on based on what they say.

When asked about his involvement with Muxtape, Lodwick first denied it before backtracking. Then, after sources told us Lodwick might have broken his severance agreement in hiring Ouellette away from Connected Ventures to start Muxtape, Ouellette emailed us to say: "I created Muxtape by myself, thank you very much." We emailed back: "Who pays the bills at Muxtape?" No reply, but we've heard the answer is Lodwick.

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<![CDATA[How Alibaba.com boosted Yahoo's quarter — and why Wall Street's yawning]]> BlakeJorgensen.jpgYahoo beat analyst expectations for its first-quarter revenues by $30 million, $1.35 billion to $1.32 billion. Its net income, at $542 million, was considerably higher than Wall Street had hoped for, too. But $401 million of that profit came from a noncash gain, Yahoo's take from Alibaba.com's initial public offering, from which Yahoo profited because it owns 39 percent of Alibaba Group, Alibaba.com's parent company. Investors have taken this caveat into account, bidding Yahoo's stock slightly down in after-hours trading. Commenter WagCurious wants to tar and feather Yahoo CFO Blake Jorgensen for including these gains in Yahoo's quarterly revenues. But one-time gains like this are a well-understood phenomenon, and there's nothing unusual about Yahoo's treatment of it. If nothing else, Wall Street understands making money from buying and selling pieces of companies.

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<![CDATA[Google orders up 1,788 Googlephone apps for just $2,800 apiece]]> AndroidinAction.jpgThere's no real market for applications written for Google's Android cell-phone operating system — the sad, software-only remnant of the abortive quest for a Googlephone — but Google's trying hard to create an artificial one. Participants in Google's Android Developer Challenge submitted 1,788 Android programs. In May, Google will award 50 semifinalists $25,000 apiece. Eventually Google will pay out $5 million in prizes, or about $2,800 per entry, according to quick bit of math. Why not actually make a Googlephone? That seems easier. (Photo by Kai Hendry)

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<![CDATA[Marc Andreessen's egg-shaped head, CEO's rack distract Fast Company writer from Ning's vanishingly small business]]> Here's what you really need to know about Ning, according to Fast Company writer Adam Penenberg. Its chairman, Netscape cofounder Marc Andreessen, has an egg-shaped head. Its CEO, Gina Bianchini, who posed for Fast Company's cover in a tank top, is a "hottie." And Ning, a provider of websites for niche social networks, is poised to hit "critical mass" and "no one can stop it." Two out of those three statements were factchecked.

BuzzingNing does have people in the Valley, as Fast Company claims, "buzzing," but not because of the "viral expansion loops" which Andreessen talks up in the piece. Penenberg's thesis: Andreessen has fused viral marketing with social networks, and therefore Ning's current fast expansion rate will continue ad infinitum, or at least ad acquisition.

This is a fashionable delusion fostered by people with something to sell. Supporting Andreessen's argument are Union Square Ventures' Fred Wilson and Sequoia Capital's Roelof Botha, both of whom make the argument for compound growth. Wilson is an investor in Twitter; Botha backed YouTube. Both profit from the notion that a site's current growth rate will continue unchecked.

The reality? Growth always slows. Facebook used to crow about how its user numbers grew 3 percent a week. By the time Microsoft sank $240 million into the company, that figure had already dropped; it may now be around 1 or 2 percent. Still impressive, and still fast-growing — but any projections based on 3 percent weekly growth are now dead wrong.

With absurdities about compound growth and viral expansion stripped out, Penenberg has little to offer in Ning's defense. According to figures in the piece, Ning is making roughly $1.7 million a year in the $20-a-month subscriptions some social-network creators pay. The rest of the money they make comes from Google's AdSense ads, the familiar fallback of hopeless startups. Bianchini admits as much in a blog post. And yet she and Andreessen commanded a $214 million valuation for their creation.

What Penenberg doesn't explore: The laughable reputation of Ning's software within the Valley. The piece quotes exactly one Ning user. Had Penenberg asked around, he'd have heard from scores of disgusted social-network creators who walked away from the service after trying it out. Pointing that out would get in the way of discussing the appearance of Ning's creators. Really, Adam, I thought that was our job.

(Photo by Fast Company/Art Streiber)

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<![CDATA[Watch this YouTube video 1,000 times, and its creator will earn 80 cents]]> After Yuri Baranovski's Web TV series Break a Leg reached two million views on YouTube, Google cut him a $1,600 check. In advertising math, that translates to an $0.80 CPM, or cost per thousand views. Taking what NewTeeVee knows about YouTube's partner program, disgraced stock analyst Henry Blodget suggests that YouTube charges advertisers a CPM between $1 and $3.20 and gets to keep between $0.25 and $2.40. The equation's solution: On 3.4 billion YouTube views in January, Google grossed between $850,000 and $2.72 million. Taking the higher estimate, YouTube will have paid back Google for its $1.65 billion acquisition price in another 607 months.

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<![CDATA[How Google could sneak its way to a major Yahoo deal]]> Yahoo plus GoogleTo fend off Microsoft, Yahoo is conducting a test with Google to have the latter broker ads for Yahoo's search results. The notion: Google will be so much more effective at selling ads than Yahoo that it will raise Yahoo's revenues, and therefore boost its value well beyond Microsoft's $44.6 billion offer. The test is supposedly "limited," covering only 3 percent of Yahoo's search traffic. But Mike Stoppelman, a former Google engineer, thinks that the deal may be more far-reaching than Yahoo or Google would like you to think.

The journalist-math assumption is that 3 percent of search results is 3 percent of revenues. Of course not, Stoppelman points out. Google doesn't even display ads on many of its own pages, knowing it can't make money off them. His assumptions and conclusion:

  • Only 30 percent of search-results pages generate money.

  • 20 percent of those pages generate 80 percent of search-ad revenue.

  • 6 percent of Yahoo's pages, therefore, generate 80 percent of Yahoo's search revenues.

  • Google's 3 percent test could affect 40 percent of Yahoo's revenues.

If Stoppelman is correct, then Google and Yahoo have a problem. It's hard for Microsoft to argue against a 3-percent deal. But a deal which actually covers 40 percent of Yahoo's search business? That, combined with Google's existing market share in search advertising, could attract attention from antitrust cops. Google and Yahoo likely hoped to sneak this test past rivals and the government. Too bad Google doesn't have a monopoly on simple math.

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<![CDATA[Calacanis reveals journalist roots with extra-clever math]]> Mahalo CEO Jason Calacanis is an entrepreneur now, but back in the 1990s, he ran a publication called Silicon Alley Reporter. And sometimes, his journalist roots show. Like during this recent interview with The Deal when Calacanis explained who uses Mahalo. Seems 80 percent come from one place and 80 percent from another. Watch for when reporter Mary Kathleen Flynn nods in a big way, as if to say, "Makes perfect sense to me."

When people come to the site, I think its it's probably 80 percent the use case of Wikipedia and 80 percent the use case of a traditional search engine like Yahoo or Google.
Below, Calacanis explains the perfect sense of his figuring. Those prone to motion sickness should proceed with caution.

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